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Muskoka’s real estate market in mid‑2025 continues to reveal a buyer’s advantage—especially for non‑waterfront homes. In Q2 2025, Muskoka & Area recorded 338 non‑waterfront residential sales, down 12.2 % from Q2 2024, with the median price dropping 4.4 %, landing at $602,500. At the same time, inventory remains moderate at 6.0 months, suggesting a more balanced—but still favorable—market for buyers. For sellers, a well‑priced, move‑in‑ready property can still attract attention—but expect home sale prices to land closer to fair market value rather than premium territory.

On the waterfront, cottage markets are undergoing a recalibration. In Q2 2025, 285 cottages sold, marking a 9.5 % decline year‑over‑year, while the median sale price dipped 10.3 % to about $875,000. Yet despite these shifts, absorption rates have improved—days on market dropped to 21 days from 25 in Q2 2024, and inventory fell from 8.3 to 6.9 months. In essence, there’s still serious buyer interest—particularly for well‑positioned listings—but with more negotiating power than in recent years.

The luxury end of Muskoka’s waterfront market is showing mixed signals. Properties priced under $3 million continue to see steep declines in sales—about 65 % since the 2021 peak—while luxury listings above $3 million are faring somewhat better, with a 44 % drop. This divergence emphasizes that, even within the luxury segment, affordability matters. Sellers in the mid‑range tier may need to consider pricing adjustments or enhanced staging, while those in the high‑end bracket can still count on resilient buyer demand—albeit tempered.

Looking ahead, local forecasts point to continued momentum for buyers. Analysts expect non‑waterfront prices to remain stable, with modest growth later in the year. Recent reports also indicate 2–4 % cottage price growth early in 2025, particularly in lower‑price segments, spurred by renewed interest from GTA buyers and first‑timers. Plus, amenities—both indoors (saunas, home theaters) and outdoors (fire pits, Muskoka rooms)—are increasingly critical to buyers’ decisions. Whether buying or selling, staying informed about these shifting dynamics—and aligning property features with market demand—remains key to making smart choices in Muskoka’s evolving real estate landscape.

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